Courage Campaign pulls out of 2010 effort to repeal Prop. 8

[JohnMarcotte]

Courage Campaign pulls out of 2010 effort to repeal Prop. 8
by Rex Wockner
Bay Windows Contributor
Monday Dec 7, 2009

The Courage Campaign, the second-biggest player for the gay side in California’s continuing war over same-sex marriage, said Nov. 30 that it was pulling out of the campaign to put an initiative before voters in 2010 to repeal Proposition 8.

Passed by voters in 2008, Prop. 8 amended the state constitution to re-ban same-sex marriage just 4 1/2 months after it had become legal.

"We need a combination of powerful and clear research that informs an expertly run campaign, an unstoppable movement that harnesses the new energy we have seen since the passage of Prop. 8, and the connections through personal stories and outreach in order to win at the ballot box," said Chair Rick Jacobs. "We are taking the lessons learned from last year’s Prop. 8 campaign, the campaigns in Maine and other states to understand the fundamental work that must be done before moving forward in California. We also must come together as a community to create a broad coalition and governance structure, put in place a strong manager and secure the resources to win. Right now, the pieces are not all in place to do so confidently."

The biggest player for the gay side, Equality California, came out in opposition to the 2010 effort previously, saying it will instead work toward a 2012 campaign asking voters to re-amend the constitution.

Courage’s decision leaves the Los Angeles-based group Love Honor Cherish as the sole substantial player working to put a Prop. 8 referendum on the November 2010 ballot.

Full article: http://www.baywindows.com/index.php?ch= ... =&id=99812

[Steven Elia]

I think it would be interesting to see what members here think about 2010 versus 2012.

I was an advocate of 2010 for the longest time, but began to change my mind as of late (due to events like Maine and the LA Times poll showing 60% of voters don't want to see a repeal effort in 2010, regardless of where they stand on the issue of same-sex marriage).

2010 is obviously going to be a harder battle than 2012 will be, and we are already behind at this point if anything was to happen. And frankly, I think it would do us a lot more harm in 2012 if a 2010 effort failed. I'd rather go the safer and surer route.

[mshughes]

A big problem with 2010 is the demograhics of likely voters. Non-presidential election years draw mostly older voters -- and those people are the most strongly against same sex marriage. We're much better off in 2012 when the demographics will skew younger, in addition to having two more years for outreach, education and fundraising.

[Kelly.McCrory]

The 2010 vs. 2012 argument seems mostly to be around the idea that 2012 is a presidential election. Fair enough. However it may well be that the public sentiment in 2012 is more (for a lack of a better word) conservative, which probably doesn't bode well.

[Steven Elia]

I can't imagine the public growing more conservative over this issue in the span of four years, though.

I mean, compare the results of Prop 8 with Prop 22 in 2000. We gained roughly 9 points in the span of only 8 years. This is one of those issues where I can't see the rate of change ever decreasing, making 2012 all but a sure thing just from the passage of time.

[Kelly.McCrory]

Steve, I guess what I mean is that in 2012 you will not have the huge pro-Obama sentiment you had in 2008. Now, will that carry over into a CA gm proposition? Not sure. But, I think that, in general, the Democratic side of the ledger will do worse. Now, that said, a lot can change between then and now, but that's how its trending and that's the general historical precedent.

Now, the Repubs could give a gift like, say, nominating Palin, but we'll have to see.

[JohnMarcotte]

Steve, I guess what I mean is that in 2012 you will not have the huge pro-Obama sentiment you had in 2008. Now, will that carry over into a CA gm proposition? Not sure. But, I think that, in general, the Democratic side of the ledger will do worse. Now, that said, a lot can change between then and now, but that's how its trending and that's the general historical precedent.

Now, the Repubs could give a gift like, say, nominating Palin, but we'll have to see.

Obama still has three years to do something good. Can't say I'm in love with his (lack of) accomplishments so far, though.

[Steven Elia]

Steve, I guess what I mean is that in 2012 you will not have the huge pro-Obama sentiment you had in 2008. Now, will that carry over into a CA gm proposition? Not sure. But, I think that, in general, the Democratic side of the ledger will do worse. Now, that said, a lot can change between then and now, but that's how its trending and that's the general historical precedent.

Now, the Repubs could give a gift like, say, nominating Palin, but we'll have to see.

You're very much mistaken if you think I will be or ever have been a fan of Obama. I've never voted for him and never will.

Of course, it's a bit naive to believe an issue like this is exactly partisan. Plenty of Republican voters are for same-sex marriage just as plenty of Democrats are opposed. You could argue that the political climate will effect who actually shows up to vote, but it's a bit illogical to assume that someone who doesn't vote for Obama likewise wouldn't vote for a repeal.